Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 29 And Aug. 5

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of July 29

July 29

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

-6.0

-12.1

July 30

Personal Income - June

0.3%

0.5

0.3

Personal Spending

0.3

0.4

0.3

S&P Case/Shiller Index - May

Twenty City M/M

0.6%

0.8

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.2

0.0

0.2

Twenty City Y/Y

2.4

2.5

2.6

Consumer Confidence - July

126.5

121.5

125.0

Pending Home Sale Index - June

105.0

105.4

105.3

July 31

ADP Employment Report - July

160K

102

155

Employment Cost Index - Q2

0.7%

0.7

0.7

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.9

2.8

Chicago PMI - July

51.0

49.7

50.7

FMOC

2.125%

2.375

2.125

August 1

Initial Unemployment Claims

212K

206

213

ISM (Mfg) - July

52.3

51.7

51.9

Construction Spending - June

0.3%

-0.8

0.4

August 2

Nonfarm Payrolls - July

160K

224

156

Private

150

191

154

Manufacturing

7

17

6

Unemployment

3.6%

3.7

3.6

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.4

34.4

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.2

0.2

International Trade - June

-$54.6B

-55.5

-54.7

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (r)

98.4

98.4

98.4

Factory Orders - June

1.0%

-0.7

0.7

Durable Goods Orders

2.0

-1.3

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.0

-0.2

Week of August 5

August 5

PMI Services Index

52.2

52.2

ISM Services - July

55.6

55.1

August 6

JOLTS - June

7.3250M

7.372

August 7

Consumer Credit - June

17.0B

17.1

August 8

Wholesale Inventories - June

0.2%

0.2

Wholesale Sales

August 9

Producer Price Index - July

0.2%

0.1

PPI less food energy and trade services

0.2

0.3