Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 27 And August 3

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of July 27

July 27

Durable Goods Orders - June

10.0%

15.7

7.2

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

-1.0

-6.1

July 28

S&P Case/Shiller Index - May

Twenty City M/M

0.8%

0.9

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.4

0.3

0.3

Twenty City Y/Y

4.2

4.0

4.0

Consumer Confidence - July

95.0

98.1

94.5

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

5.0

0

July 29

International Trade in Goods - June

-$74.3B

-74.3

Wholesale Inventories - June (a)

0.2%

-1.2

Pending Home Sale Index - June

105

99.6

114.8

July 30

Initial Unemployment Claims

1459K

1416

1400

GDP - Q2 (a)

-35.0

-5.0

-34.0

July 31

Employment Cost Index - Q2

0.5%

0.8

0.6

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.7

2.8

Personal Income - June

-2.0%

-4.2

-0.5

Personal Spending

6.0

8.2

5.5

Chicago PMI - July

43.5

36.6

44.5

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (r)

73.2

73.2

72.9

Week of August 3

August 3

PMI Manufacturing Index - July

51.3

51.3

ISM (Mfg) - July

53.6

52.6

Construction Spending - June

1.0%

-2.1

Auto Sales* - July

13.3M

13.0

Car Sales

3.1

2.9

Truck Sales

10.2

10.0

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

August 4

Factory Orders - June

6.0%

8.0

Durable Goods Orders

10.0

15.7

Nondurable Goods Orders

3.0

2.0

August 5

ADP Employment Report - July

3300K

2.369

International Trade - June

-$53.7B

-54.6

PMI Services Index

49.6

49.6

ISM Services - July

55.0

57.1

August 7

Nonfarm Payrolls - July

2500K

4800

2250

Private

3300

4767

2250

Manufacturing

375

356

Unemployment

10.1%

11.1

19.2

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

-0.4%

-1.2

*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services

Consumer Credit - June

$11.0B

-18.2