Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 22 And 29

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of July 22

July 22

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - June

0.1

-0.05

0.0

July 23

FHFA Home Price Index - May

0.3%

0.4

0.3

Existing Home Sales - June

5.330M

5.340

5.340

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

5

3

5

July 24

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

51.5

50.6

50.8

PMI Services Flash Index

52.0

51.5

51.4

New Home Sales - June

645K

626

655

July 25

Initial Unemployment Claims

216K

216

210

Durable Goods Orders - June

0.8%

-1.3

0.7

International Trade in Goods - June

-$72.6B

-74.6

-72.5

Wholesale Inventories - June (a)

0.2%

0.4

0.2

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

2

0

July 26

GDP - Q2 (a)

2.2%

3.1

1.9

Week of July 29

July 29

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

-6.0

-12.1

July 30

Personal Income - June

0.3%

0.5

Personal Spending

0.3

0.4

PCE Price Index

0.1

0.2

Core PCE Price Index

0.3

0.2

S&P Case/Shiller Index - May

Twenty City M/M

0.6%

0.8

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.2

0.0

Twenty City Y/Y

2.4

2.5

Consumer Confidence - July

126.5

121.5

Pending Home Sale Index - June

105.0

105.4

July 31

ADP Employment Report - July

160K

102

Employment Cost Index - Q2

0.7%

0.7

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.9

2.8

Chicago PMI - July

51.0

49.7

FMOC

2.13%

2.375

August 1

ISM (Mfg) - July

52.0

51.7

Construction Spending - June

0.3%

-0.8

August 2

Nonfarm Payrolls - July

160K

224

Private

150

191

Manufacturing

10

17

Unemployment

3.6%

3.7

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.4

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.2

Auto Sales* - July

17.2M

17.3

Car Sales

4.9

4.9

Truck Sales