Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 15 And 22

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of July 15

July 15

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

0

-8.6

0.5

July 16

Retail Sales - June

0.3%

0.5

0.1

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.3

0.5

0.3

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gasoline

0.5

0.5

0.4

Export Prices - June

-0.2%

-0.2

-0.1

Import Prices

-0.8

-0.3

-0.5

Industrial Production - June

0.3%

0.4

0.1

Capacity Utilization

78.3

78.1

78.2

Manufacturing

0.2

0.2

0.2

Business Inventories - May

0.4%

0.5

0.4

NAHB Index - July

65

64

65

July 17

Housing Starts - June

1.265M

1.269

1.260

Building Permits

1.300

1.294

1.300

July 18

Initial Unemployment Claims

215K

209

214

Philadelphia Fed Survey

5.0

0.3

4.5

Leading Indicators

0.1%

0.0

0.1

July 19

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (p)

98.7

98.2

98.6

Week of July 22

July 22

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - June

0.1

-0.05

July 23

FHFA Home Price Index - May

0.3%

0.4

Existing Home Sales - June

5.330M

5.340

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

3

3

July 24

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

51.5

50.6

PMI Services Flash Index

52.0

51.5

New Home Sales - June

630K

626

July 25

Initial Unemployment Claims

Durable Goods Orders - June

2.0%

-1.3

International Trade in Goods - June

-$72.6B

-74.6

Wholesale Inventories - June (a)

0.2%

0.4

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

2

0

July 26

GDP - Q2 (a)

2.2%

3.1