Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 12 And 19


Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
	Forecast	Prior Observation	Consensus
Week of July 12
July 13
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - July	98.0	99.6

Consumer Price Index - June	0.5%	0.6%	0.5
Core CPI	0.4	0.7	0.4
Energy		0.0

Treasury Budget - June	-$206.0B	-132.0	-202.0

July 14
Producer Producer Index - June	0.4%	0.8	0.5
Core PPI (less food, energy and trade services	0.4	0.7	0.5

July 15
Initial Unemployment Claims	365K	373	360

Philadelphia Fed Survey	29.8	30.7	28,3
NY Fed Manufacturing Index	19.0	17.4	18.5

Export Prices - June	1.2%	2.2	1.2
Import Prices	1.2	1.1	1.2
Import Prices, ex-Energy		0.9

Industrial Production - June	0.6%	0.8	0.7
Capacity Utilization	75.7	75.2	75.6
Manufacturing	0.3	0.9	0.3

Retail Sales - June	-0.5%	-1.3	-0.4
Retail Sales, ex Autos	0.3	-0.7	0.5

July 16
Business Inventories - May	0.5%	-0.2	0.5
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (p)	86.5	85.5	86.5

Week of July 19
July 19
NAHB Index - July	82	81

July 20
Housing Starts - June	1.620M	1.572	1.592
Building Permits	1.705	1.683

July 22
Chicago Fed National Activity Index - June	0.30	0.29

Leading Indicators	1.1%	1.3	1.0
Existing Home Sales - June	5.825M	5.800	5.950