Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of January 6 And 13

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of January 6

January 6

PMI Services Index - December

52.2

52.2

January 7

International Trade - November

-$43,8B

-47.2

-43.9

Factory Orders - November

-1.8%

0.3

-0.8

Durable Goods Orders

-2.0

-2.0

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.3

0.0

ISM Services - December

54.5

53.9

54.5

ADP Employment - December

165K

67

156

Consumer Credit - November

$17.0B

18.9

16.7

January 9

Initial Unemployment Claims

225K

222

222

January 10

Nonfarm Payrolls - December

175K

266

160

Private

165

254

149

Manufacturing

12

48

4

Unemployment

3.5%

3.5

3.5

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.4

34.4

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.2

0.3

Wholesale Inventories - November

0.0%

0,0

Week of January 13

January 13

Treasury Budget - December

$12.0B

-208.8

January 14

NFIB Small Business Confidence - December

104.7

104.7

January 15

Consumer Price Index - December

0.2%

0.3

Core CPI

0.2

0.2

Producer Price Index - December

0.2%

0.0

Core PPI (PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services)

0.2

0.0

NY Fed Manufacturing Index - January

3.5

3.5

January 16

Retail Sales - December

0.4%

0.2

Retail Sales, ex autos

0.4

0.1

Retail Sales, ex autos and gasoline

0.3

0.0

Philadelphia Fed Index

3.0

0.3

Export Prices - December

0.4%

0.2

Import Prices_ December

0.4

0.2

Ex Petroleum

0.1

0.2

Business Inventories - November

-0.1%

0.2

NAHB Index - January

76

76

January 17

Housing Starts - December

1.360M

1.360

Building Permits

1.460

1.482

Industrial Production - December

0.2%

1.1

Capacity Utilization

77.4%

77.3

Manufacturing

0.2

1.1

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - January (p)

99.4

99.3