Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of January 3 And 10

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of January 3

January 3

Construction Spending - November

0.6%

0.2

0.6

January 4

ISM (Mfg) - December

60.5

61.1

60.2

ISM Prices

JOLTS - Nov

11.200

11.033

Auto Sales - December

13.4M

12.9

Car Sales

2.7

2.6

Truck Sales

10.7

10.3

January 5

ADP Employment - December

360K

534

413

January 6

Initial Unemployment Claims

200K

198

International Trade - November

-$81.5B

-67.1

-69.2

ISM Services - December

67.0

69.1

-70.0

Factory Orders - November

2,0%

1.0

1.3

Durable Goods Orders 

2.5

-0.4

Nondurable Goods Orders 

1.6

2.4

January 7

Nonfarm Payrolls - December

400K

210

400

Private

360

235

365

Manufacturing

35

31

35

Unemployment

4.2%

4.2

4.1

Average Workweek

34.7Hr

34.8

34.8

Average Hourly Earnings

0.3%

0.3

0.4

Consumer Credit - November

$18.5B

16.9

19.0

Week of January 10

January 10

Wholesale Inventories - November

1.2%

1.2

January 11

NFIB Small Business Confidence - December

98.4

98.4

January 12

Consumer Price Index - December

0.5%

0.8

Core CPI

0.5

0.5

Treasury Budget - December

$30.0B

-191.3

January 13

Producer Price Index - December

0.4%

0.8

Core PPI (PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services)

0.5

0.7

January 14

Retail Sales - December

0.3%

0.3

Retail Sales, ex autos

0.3

0.3

Export Prices - December

0.2%

1.0

Import Prices_ December

0.1

0.7

Ex Petroleum

0.6

0.7

Petroleum

0.4

Industrial Production - December

0.5%

0.5

Capacity Utilization

77.2

76.8

Manufacturing

0.7

0.7

Business Inventories - November

1.2%

1.2

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - January (p)

70.6

70.6