Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of January 24 And 31

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of January 24

January 24

Chicago Fed Natonal Activity Index - December

0.25

0.37

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index - January

56.7

57.7

56.7

PMI Services Flash Index - January

55.4

57.6

55.0

January 25

S&P Case/Shiller Index - November

Twenty City M/M

0.7

0.8

Twenty City M/M - SA

1.0

0.9

1.0

Twenty City Y/Y

18.0

18.4

18.1

FHFA Housing Market Index - November

1.0%

1.1

Consumer Confidence - January 

111.0

115.8

118.8

Richmond Fed Index

14

16

January 26

International Trade in Goods (a)

-$95.0B

-97.8

Wholesale Inventories (a)

1.4%

1.4

New Home Sales - December

765K

744

760

FMOC

0.125%

0.125

January 27

Initial Unemployment Claims

250K

286

255

GDP - Q4 (a)

6.0%

2.3

5.4

Durable Goods Orders - December

0.0%

2.6

Pending Home Sales - December 

122.4

122.4

122.8

January 28

Employment Cost Index - Q4

1.1%

1.3

1.2

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

4.0

3.7

Personal Income - December

0.5%

0.4

0.5

Personal Spending

-0.5

0.6

-0.5

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (f)

68.8

68.8

68.6

Week of  January 31

January 31

Dallas Fed Indes - January

10.0

8.1

Chicago PMI - January

62.5

63.1

February 1

ISM (Mfg) - January

58.0

58.7

58.4

Construction Spending - January

0.7%

0.4

0.7

JOLTS - December

10.100

10.562

Auto Sales - January

12.7

12.4

Car Sales

2.7

2.7

Truck Sales

10.0

9.8

February 2

ADP Employment Survey - January

250K

807

250

February 3

Initial Unemployment Claims

260K

286

Productivity - Q(4) - preliminary

3.2%

-5.2

3.0

Unit Labor Cost

0.8

9.6

1.5

PMI Services Index - January

ISM Services - January

61.8

62.0

62.0

Factory Orders - December

0.3%

1.6

0.2

Durable Goods Orders

0.0

2.6

Nondurable Goods Orders 

0.6

0.7

February 4

Nonfarm Payrolls - January

280K

199.0

250

Private

250

211

240

Manufacturing

45

26

25

Unemployment

3.8%

3.9

3.9

Average Workweek

34.8HR

34.7

34.7

Average Hourly Earnings

0.6%

0.6

0.5