Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of January 23 And 30

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of January 23

January 24

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index - January

54.1

54.3

54.5

Existing Home Sales - December

5.560M

5.610

5.538

Richmond Fed Index

8.0

8.0

January 25

FHFA Housing Market Index - November

0.5%

0.4

January 26

Initial Unemployment Claims

245K

234

247

International Trade in Goods- November

-$65.3B

-65.3

-65.3

Chicago Fed Natonal Activity Index

-0.10

-0.27

PMI Services Flash Index

53.7

53.9 (Dec-F)

54.4

Leading Indicators

0.3%

0.0

0.5

New Home Sales

590K

592

590

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

11

11

January 27

GDP - Q4 (a)

2.1%

3.5

2.2

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

2.1

1.4

2.1

Durable Goods Orders - December

2.5%

-4.5

3.0

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (f)

98.1

98.1

98.2

Week of  January 30

January 30

Personal Income - December

0.4%

0.0

Personal Spending

0.5

0.2

Pending Home Sales - December

108.0

107.3

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

16.5

15.5

January 31

Employment Cost Index - Q4

0.6%

0.9

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.4

2.3

S&P Case/Shiller Index - November

Twenty City M/M

-0.1%

0.1

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.7

0.6

Twenty City Y/Y

5.0

5.1

Chicago PMI - January

55.0

54.6

Consumer Confidence

113.8

113.7

February 1

ADP Employment Survey - January

170K

153

ISM (Mfg) - January

54.7

54.7

ISM Prices

65.5

Construction Spending - January

0.3%

0.6

Auto Sales* - January

18.2M

18.43

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

February 2

Productivity - Q4 (p)

1.0%

3.1

Unit Labor Costs

2.4

0.7

February 3

Nonfarm Payrolls - January

180K

156

Private

165

144

Unemployment

4.7%

4.7

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.3

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.4

ISM Services - January

57.0

57.2

Factory Orders - December

1.2%

-2.4

Durable Goods Orders

2.2

-4.5

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.4

-0.2