Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of January 2 And January 9

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of January 2

January 3

PMI Manufacturing Index - December

54.2(f)

54.2(p)

ISM (Mfg) - December

53.6

53.2

53.8

Construction Spending - December

0.6%

0.5

0.6

January 4

Auto Sales* - December

17.8M

17.87

17.7

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

January 5

Initial Unemployment Claims

260K

265

260

ADP Employment - December

165K

216

172

PMI Services Index - December

53.4

53.4

ISM Services - December

56.6

57.2

56.8

January 6

Nonfarm Payrolls - December

175K

178

175

Private

165

156

165

Manufacturing

2

-4

0

Unemployment

4.7%

4.6

4.7

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.4

34.4

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

-0.1

0.3

International Trade - November

-$46.4B

-42.6

-44.5

Factory Orders - November

-2.3%

2.7

-2.5

Week of January 9

January 9

Consumer Credit - November

$20.0B

16.0

January 10

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - Dec

99.0

98.4

Wholesale Inventories - November

0.2%

0.9

January 12

Export Prices - December

-0.2%

-0.1

Import Prices_ December

1.0

-0.3

Treasury Budget - December

-$20.0B

-136.7

January 13

Retail Sales - December

0.4%

0.1

Retail Sales, ex autos

0.4

0.2

Producer Price Index - December

0.2%

0.4

Core PPI (PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services)

0.2

0.2

Business Inventories - November

0.5%

-0.2

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - January (p)

98.6

98.2