Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of January 17 And 24

My predictions for upcoming data releases, including existing-home sales, CPI, PPI, retail sales.

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

 
 
 
 
 
Forecast
Prior Observation
Consensus
 
Week of January 17
 
 
 
 
January 18
 
 
 
 
NY Fed Manufacturing Index - January
25.9
31.9
25.0
 
NAHB Index - January
84
84
84
 
 
 
 
 
 
January 19
 
 
 
 
Housing Starts - December
1.680
1.679
1.650
 
Building Permits
1.720
1.712
1.701
 
 
 
 
 
 
January 20
 
 
 
 
Initial Unemployment Claims
220K
230
220
 
Philadelphia Fed Index
27.2
15.4
20.0
 
 
 
 
 
 
Existing Home Sales - December
6.390
6.460
6.430
 
 
 
 
 
 
January 21
 
 
 
 
Leading Indicators
0.8%
1.1
0.8
 
 
 
 
 
 
Week of January 24
 
 
 
 
January 24
 
 
 
 
Chicago Fed Natonal Activity Index - December
0.25
0.37
 
 
PMI Manufacturing Flash Index - January
57.7
57.7
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
January 25
 
 
 
 
S&P Case/Shiller Index - November
 
 
 
 
Twenty City M/M
0.7
0.8
 
 
Twenty City M/M - SA
1.0
0.9
 
 
Twenty City Y/Y
18.0
18.4
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
FHFA Housing Market Index - November
1.0%
1.1
 
 
Consumer Confidence - January 
113.8
115.8
 
 
Richmond Fed Index
14
16
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
January 26
 
 
 
 
International Trade in Goods (a)
-$95.0B
-97.8
 
 
Wholesale Inventories (a)
1.4%
1.4
 
 
New Home Sales - December
775K
744
 
 
FMOC
0.125%
0.125
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
January 27
 
 
 
 
GDP - Q4 (a)
6.4%
2.3
 
 
Durable Goods Orders - December
0.0%
2.6
 
 
Pending Home Sales - December 
122.4
122.4
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
January 28
 
 
 
 
Employment Cost Index - Q4
0.9%
1.3
 
 
Employment Cost Index - Y/Y
3.9
3.7
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Personal Income - December
0.4%
0.4
 
 
Personal Spending
-0.1
0.6
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (f)
68.8
68.8
 
 
 
 
 
 

Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.

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