Economic Data Forecasts for the Weeks of January 13 and 20

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of January 13

January 13

Treasury Budget - December

-$12.0B

-208.8

-15

January 14

NFIB Small Business Confidence - December

104.7

104.7

Consumer Price Index - December

0.2%

0.3

0.3

Core CPI

0.2

0.2

0.2

January 15

Producer Price Index - December

0.2%

0.0

0.2

Core PPI (PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services)

0.2

0.0

NY Fed Manufacturing Index - January

3.5

3.5

3.5

January 16

Initial Unemployment Claims

215K

212

216

Retail Sales - December

0.4%

0.2

0.3

Retail Sales, ex autos

0.5

0.1

0.5

Retail Sales, ex autos and gasoline

0.4

0.0

Philadelphia Fed Index

3.0

0.3

3.8

Export Prices - December

0.4%

0.2

0.2

Import Prices_ December

0.4

0.2

0.3

Business Inventories - November

-0.1%

0.2

-0.1

NAHB Index - January

74

76

75

January 17

Housing Starts - December

1.365M

1.360

1.378

Building Permits

1.460

1.482

1.465

Industrial Production - December

0.0%

1.1

-0.1

Capacity Utilization

77.4%

77.3

77.1

Manufacturing

-0.1

1.1

-0.2

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - January (p)

99.3

99.3

99.3

Week of January 20

January 22

Chicago Fed Natonal Activity Index - December

0.30

0.56

FHFA Housing Market Index - November

0.3%

0.2

Existing Home Sales - December

5.475M

5.350

January 23

Leading Indicators

0.2%

0.0