| Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | |||
| Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus | |
| Week of January 25 | |||
| January 25 | |||
| Chicago Fed Natonal Activity Index - December | 0.10 | 0.27 | |
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 11.5 | 9.7 | |
| January 26 | |||
| S&P Case/Shiller Index - November | |||
| Twenty City M/M | 0.4% | 1.3 | |
| Twenty City M/M - SA | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Twenty City Y/Y | 8.2 | 7.9 | 8.1 |
| FHFA Housing Market Index - November | 0.5% | 1.5 | |
| Consumer Confidence - January | 88.6 | 88.6 | 89.0 |
| Richmond Fed Index | 19 | 19 | |
| January 27 | |||
| Durable Goods Orders - December | 2.5% | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| FMOC | 0.125% | 0.125 | |
| January 28 | |||
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 875K | 900 | 878 |
| GDP - Q4 (a) | 3.9% | 33.4 | 4.0 |
| GDP Implicit Price Deflator | |||
| International Trade in Goods (a) | -$83.5B | -84.8 | |
| Wholesale Inventories (a) | 0.8% | 0.0 | |
| Leading Indicators | 0.6% | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| New Home Sales - December | 900K | 841.0 | 860 |
| January 29 | |||
| Employment Cost Index - Q4 | 0.5% | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Employment Cost Index - Y/Y | 2.2 | 2.4 | |
| Personal Income - December | 0.1% | -1.1 | 0.1 |
| Personal Spending | -0.6% | -0.4 | -0.4 |
| Chicago PMI - January | 58.5 | 59.5 | 58.0 |
| Pending Home Sales - December | 124.0 | 125.7 | 124.9 |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (f) | 79.2 | 79.2 | 79.2 |
| Week of February 1 | |||
| February 1 | |||
| PMI Manufacturing Index - January | 59.1 | 59.1 | |
| ISM (Mfg) - January | 60.7 | 60.7 | |
| ISM Prices | |||
| Construction Spending - January | 0.8% | 0.9 | |
| February 2 | |||
| Auto Sales - January | 16.1M | 16.3 | |
| February 3 | |||
| ADP Employment Survey - January | 40K | -123 | |
| PMI Services Index - January | 57.5 | 57.5 | |
| ISM Services - January | 56.8 | 57.2 | |
| February 4 | |||
| Initial Unemployment Claims | |||
| Productivity - Q(4) - preliminary | -4.9% | 4.6 | |
| Unit Labor Cost | 3.4 | -6.6 | |
| Factory Orders - December | 1.9% | 1.0 | |
| Durable Goods Orders | 2.5 | 1.0 | |
| Nondurable Goods Orders | 1.2 | 1.1 | |
| February 5 | |||
| Nonfarm Payrolls - January | 20K | -140 | |
| Private | 40 | -95.0 | |
| Manufacturing | 30 | 38 | |
| Unemployment | 6.8% | 6.7 | |
| Average Workweek | 34.7HR | 34.7 | |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 0.4% | 0.8 | |
| International Trade | -$66.8B | -68.1 | |
| Consumer Credit - December | $12M | 15.3 | |
Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Jan. 25 And Feb. 1
Projections for upcoming data releases, including Case/Shiller, FMOC, GDP, and January Nonfarm Payrolls.
Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, and widely published columnist. He is the five time winner of the MarketWatch best forecaster award. Follow him on Twitter @PMorici1.
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