Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of February 27 And March 6

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of February 27

February 27

Durable Goods Orders - January

1.5%

-0.5

1.8

Pending Home Sales - January

109.3

109.0

110.2

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

22.1

22.1

February 28

GDP - Q4 (p)

2.1%

1.9

2.1

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

2.1

2.1

2.1

PCE

2.2

2.2

International Trade in Goods - December

-$66.0B

-65.0

-66.0

S&P Case/Shiller Index - December

Twenty City M/M

0.0%

0.2

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.7

0.9

0.7

Twenty City Y/Y

5.3

5.3

5.4

Third Quarter Twenty City Q/Q - SA

Chicago PMI - February

53.0

50.3

52.9

Consumer Confidence Index - February

112.2

111.8

111.0

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

10.0

12

March 1

Auto Sales* - February

17.9M

17.6

17.7

Car Sales

6.8

6.6

Truck Sales

11.1

11.0

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

Personal Income - January

0.3%

0.3

0.3

Personal Spending

0.3

0.5

0.3

PMI Manufacturing Index - February

54.3

ISM (Mfg) - February

55.8

56.0

56.1

ISM Prices

68.0

69.0

68.5

Construction Spending - January

0.6%

-0.2

0.5

March 2

Initial Jobless Claims

245K

244

245

March 3

ISM Services Index

56.5

56.5

56.5

Week of March 6

March 6

Factory Orders - January

0,8%

1.3

Durable Goods Orders

1.5

-0.5

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.5

3.1

March 7

Consumer Credit - January

$20.B

14.2

March 8

ADP Employment Report - February

180K

246K

Productivity - Q(4) - revised

1.5%

1.3

Unit Labor Cost

1.5

1.7

Wholesale Inventories - January

0.5%

1.0

March 9

Export Prices - February

0.0%

0.1

Import Prices

0.1

0.4

March 10

Nonfarm Payrolls - February

180K

227

Private

180

237

Unemployment

4.7%

4.8

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.4

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.2