Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of February 20 And 27

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of February 20

February 21

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

54.8

55.0

55.2

February 22

Existing Home Sales - January

5.500M

5.490

5.575

February 23

Initial Unemployment Claims

245K

239

244

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

0.14

0.14

FHFA Housing Market Index - December

0.4%

0.5

0.4

PMI Services Flash Index

54.0

53.9

February 24

New Home Sales - January

572K

536

576

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (r)

96.0

95.7

96.0

Week of February 27

February 27

Durable Goods Orders - January

1.5%

-0.5

1.9

Pending Home Sales - January

109.3

109.0

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

22.1

22.1

February 28

GDP - Q4 (p)

2.1%

1.9

2.1

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

2.1

2.1

2.1

PCE

2.2

2.2

2.2

S&P Case/Shiller Index - December

Twenty City M/M

0.0%

0.2

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.7

0.9

Twenty City Y/Y

5.3

5.3

Chicago PMI - February

52.0

50.3

Consumer Confidence Index - February

112.2

111.8

111.0

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

10.0

12

March 1

Auto Sales* - February

17.9M

17.6

17.5

Car Sales

6.8

6.6

Truck Sales

11.1

11.0

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

Personal Income - January

0.3%

0.3

0.3

Personal Spending

0.3

0.5

0.3

ISM (Mfg) - February

55.7

56.0

55.7

ISM Prices

68.0

69.0

68.0

Construction Spending - January

0.7%

-0.2

0.6

March 3

ISM Services Index

56.5

56.5

56.3