Updating my preliminary report from Thursday -
| Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | |||
| Forecast | Prior Observation | Consensus | |
| Week of February 15 | |||
| February 16 | |||
| NY Fed Manufacturing Index | 5 | 3.5 | 6.2 |
| February 17 | |||
| Retail Sales - January | 0.6% | -0.7 | 1.0 |
| Retail Sales, ex Autos | 0.8 | -1.4 | 1.0 |
| Producer Price Index - January | 0.3% | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Core PPI (PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services) | 0.2 | 0.4 | |
| Industrial Production - January | 0.4% | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| Manufacturing Output | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| Capacity Utilization | 74.8 | 74.5 | 74.8 |
| Business Iinventories - December | 0.3% | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| NAHB Index - February | 83 | 83 | 83 |
| February 18 | |||
| Housing Starts - January | 1.650M | 1.669 | 1.655 |
| Building Permits | 1.670 | 1.709 | 1.680 |
| Philadelphia Fed Survey | 20.0 | 26.5 | 20.0 |
| Export Prices - January | 0.9% | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Import Prices | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Import Prices, Ex-Petroleum | 0.5 | 0.4 | |
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 760K | 793 | 755 |
| February 19 | |||
| PMI Manufacturing Flash Index | 59.2 | 59.2 | 58.5 |
| PMI Services Flash Index | 58.5 | 58.5 | 5.75 |
| Existing Home Sales - January | 6.560M | 6.760 | 6.60 |
| Week of February 22 | |||
| February 22 | |||
| Leading Indicators - January | 0.3% | 0.3 | |
| Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index | 8.5 | 7.0 | |
| Chicago Fed National Activity Index | 0.45 | 0.52 | |
| February 23 | |||
| S&P Case/Shiller Index - December | |||
| Twenty City M/M | 0.8% | 1.1 | |
| Twenty City M/M - SA | 1.2 | 1.4 | |
| Twenty City Y/Y | 9.9 | 9.1 | |
| FHFA Housing Market Index - December | 0.8% | 1.0 | |
| Consumer Confidence Index - February | 90.0 | 89.3 | |
| Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 14 | 14 | |
| February 24 | |||
| New Home Sales - Jan | 855K | 842 | |
| February 25 | |||
| Durable Goods Orders - January | 0.9% | 0.3 | |
| GDP - Q4 (p) | 4.0% | 4.0 | |
| Pending Home Sales - January | 125.5 | 125.5 | |
| February 26 | |||
| International Trade in Goods - January (a) | -$83.2B | -82.5 | |
| Wholesale Inventories (a) - January | 0.3 | ||
| Personal Income - January | 11.0% | 0.6 | |
| Personal Spending | 0.5 | -0.2 | |
| Chicago PMI - February | 60.0 | 63.8 | |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (r) | 77.5 | 76.2 | |
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