| Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data. | |||
| Forecast | Prior Observation | ||
| Week of February 3 | |||
| February 3 | |||
| PMI Manufacturing Index - January | 50.1 | 50.1 | |
| ISM (Mfg) - January | 48.3% | 49.3 | |
| ISM Prices | |||
| Auto Sales - January | 16.6M | 16.8 | |
| Car Sales | 3.1 | 3.0 | |
| Truck Sales | 13.5 | 13.9 | |
| February 4 | |||
| Factory Orders - December | -0.9% | -0.4 | |
| Durable Goods Orders | -2.2 | -1.2 | |
| Nondurable Goods Orders | 0.5 | 0.4 | |
| JOLTS - December | 8.000M | 8.098 | |
| February 5 | |||
| ADP Employment Survey - January | 155K | 122 | |
| International Trade - December | -$87.4B | -78.2 | |
| PMI Services Index - January | 52.8 | 52.8 | |
| ISM Services - January | 55.1 | 54.1 | |
| February 6 | |||
| Productivity - Q(4) - preliminary | 2.0% | 2.2 | |
| Unit Labor Cost | 4.2 | 0.8 | |
| Initial Unemployment Claims | 215K | 207 | |
| February 7 | |||
| Nonfarm Payrolls - January | 180K | 256 | |
| Private | 165 | 223 | |
| Manufacturing | 5.0 | -13 | |
| Unemployment | 4.1% | 4.1 | |
| Average Workweek | 34.3HR | 34.3 | |
| Average Hourly Earnings | 0.3% | 0.3 | |
| Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (p) | 72.0 | 71.1 | |
| Wholesale Inventories (f) | -0.5% | -0.5 | |
| Consumer Credit - December | $12.5B | -7.5 | |
| Week of February 10 | |||
| February 11 | |||
| NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - January | 103.5 | 105.1 | |
| February 12 | |||
| Consumer Price Index - January | 0.3% | 0.4 | |
| Core CPI | 0.3 | 0.2 | |
| Treasury Budget - January | -$45.5B | -86.7 | |
| February 13 | |||
| Producer Price Index - January | 0.3% | 0.2 | |
| PPI less food, energy and trade services | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| February 14 | |||
| Retail Sales - January | 0.4% | 0.4 | |
| Retail Sales, ex Autos | 0.4 | 0.4 | |
| Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas | 0.3 | 0.3 | |
| Export Prices - January | 0.3% | 0.3 | |
| Import Prices | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| Import Prices, Ex-Petroleum | -0.1 | 0.2 | |
| Industrial Production - January | 0.2% | 0.9 | |
| Manufacturing Output | 0.0 | 0.6 | |
| Capacity Utilization | 77.6 | 77.6 | |
| Business Inventories - December | -0.1 | 0.1 |
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