Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of Feb. 25 And March 4

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of February 25

February 25

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

0.3

0.27

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

3.0

1.0

Wholesale Inventories - December

0.1%

0.3

February 26

Housing Starts - December

1.256M

1.256

1.253

Building Permits

1.300

1.328

1.273

S&P Case/Shiller Index - December

Twenty City M/M

0.4%

0.3

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.0

-0.1

FHFA Housing Market Index - December

0.4%

0.4

Consumer Confidence Index - February

123.4

120.0

122.8

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

0

-2

February 27

International Trade in Goods - December (a)

-$73.0B

-70.5

-75.6

Factory Orders - December

0.5%

-0.6

0.6

Pending Home Sales - January

100.1

99.1

100

February 28

GDP - Q4 (p)

2.8%

3.4

Chicago PMI - February

60.0

56.7

March 1

Auto Sales* - February

17.1M

16.6

17.0

Car Sales

5.3

5.2

Truck Sales

11.8

11.4

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

Personal Income - December

0.4%

0.2

0.4

Personal Spending

0.2

0.4

0.1

Personal Income - January

0.3%

Personal Spending

0.4

ISM (Mfg) - February

55.5

56.6

55.9

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (r)

95.5

95.5

Week of March 4

March 4

Construction Spending - December

0.8%

0.8

Construction Spending - January

0.6

March 5

ISM Services Index

57.5

58.0

New Home Sales - December

610K

657.0

March 6

International Trade - January

-$51.3B

-49.3

March 7

Productivity - Q(4) -

1.7%

2.2

Unit Labor Cost

1.8

0.9

Consumer Credit - January

$17.0B

16.6

March 8

Nonfarm Payrolls - February

190K

304

Private

180

296

Manufacturing

15

13

Unemployment

3.9%

4.0

Average Workweek

34.5HR

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.1