Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of December 16 And 23

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of December 17

December 16

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

5.0

2.9

4.0

PMI Services Flash Index

52.5

51.6

52.0

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

52.8

52.6

52.6

NAHB Index

70

70

70

December 17

Housing Starts - November

1.300M

1.314

1.344

Building Permits

1.380

1.461

1.400

Industrial Production - November

0.8%

-0.8

0.8

Capacity Utilization

76.9

76.7

77.2

Manufacturing

0.7

-0.6

0.7

JOLTS-October

6.950M

7.024

December 19

Initial Unemployment Claims

215K

252

Philadelphia Fed Survey

8.5

10.4

8.0

Current Account - Q3

-$121.0B

-128.2

-122.5

Existing Home Sales - November

5.420M

5.460

5.45

Leading Indicators - November

0.0%

-0.1

0.1

December 20

GDP - Q3 (f)

2.1%

2.1

2.1

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

1.7

1.7

1.8

Personal Income - November

0.3%

0.0

0.3

Personal Spending

0.4

0.3

0.5

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - December (r)

99.2

99.2

99.2

Week of December 23

December 23

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - November

-0.31

-0.71

New Home Sales - November

715K

733

725

December 24

Durable Goods Orders - November

2.5%

0.5

2.0

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

1.0

-1.0