Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of August 3 And 10

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of August 3

August 3

PMI Manufacturing Index - July

51.3

51.3

ISM (Mfg) - July

53.6

52.6

53.6

Construction Spending - June

1.0%

-2.1

1.0

Auto Sales* - July

13.8M

13.0

Car Sales

3.3

2.9

Truck Sales

10.5

10.0

August 4

Factory Orders - June

4.9%

8.0

5.0

Durable Goods Orders

7.3

15.7

Nondurable Goods Orders

3.0

2.0

August 5

ADP Employment Report - July

2400K

2369.000

1500

International Trade - June

-$50.0B

-54.6

-50.3

ISM Services - July

55.0

57.1

August 6

Initial Unemployment Claims

1434K

1434

1400

August 7

Nonfarm Payrolls - July

2400K

4800

1650

Private

2400

4767

1518

Manufacturing

300

356

280

Unemployment

10.3%

11.1

10.5

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.5

34.4

Average Hourly Earnings

-0.4%

-1.2

-0.5

Wholesale Inventories - June

-2.0%

-2.0

-2.0

Consumer Credit - June

$11.0B

-18.2

10.0

Week of August 10

August 10

JOLTS - June

5.500M

5.397

August 11

Producer Price Index - July

0.3%

-0.2

PPI less food energy and trade services

0.2

0.3

August 12

Consumer Price Index - July

0.3%

0.6

CPI Core

0.2

0.2

Treasury Budget - July

-$380B

-864.1

August 13

Export Prices -July

0.2%

1.4

Import Prices

0.2

1.4

August 14

Retail Sales - July

1.0%

7.5

Retail Sales, ex Autos

1.0

7.3

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas

0.5

6.7

Productivity - Q2 (p)

-3.5%

-0.9

Unit Labor Costs

6.5

5.1

Industrial Production - July

3.0%

5.4

Manufacturing

3.0

7.2

Capacity Utilization

71.0

68.6

Business Inventories - June

-1.2%

-2.3