Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of August 23 And 30


Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
	Forecast	Prior Observation	Consensus
Week of August 23
August 23
Chicago Fed National Activity Index - July	0.20	0.09

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index	63.9	63.4	62.8
PMI Services Flash	59.4	59.9	59.4

Existing Home Sales - July	5.810M	5.860	5.810

August 24
New Home Sales - July	700K	676	690
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index	27	27

August 25
Durable Goods Sales - July	0.3%	0.9	-0.2

August 26
Initial Unemployment Claims	350K	348	350
GDP - Q2 (p)	6.6%	6.5	6.7

August 27
International Trade in Goods - July	-$90.5B	-91.2	-74.7
Wholesale Inventories - July (a)	1.0%	1.1

Personal Income - July	0.2%	0.1	0.2
Personal Spending	0.5	1.0	0.3

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - August (r)	70.6	70.2	70.9

Week of August 30
August 30
Pending Home Sales Index - July	111.0	112.8
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index	27.5	27.3

August 31
S&P Case/Shiller Index - June
Twenty City M/M	1.7%	2.1
Twenty City M/M - SA	1.5	1.8
Twenty City Y/Y	18.6	17.0
Third Quarter Twenty City Q/Q - SA

FHFA Home Price Index - June	1.6%	1.7
Chicago PMI	69.8	73.4
Consumer Confidence - August	124.0	129.1

September 1
ISM (Mfg) - August	59.8	59.5
Construction Spending - July	0.3%	0.1

Auto Sales - August	15.0M	14.8
Car Sales	3.5	3.5
Truck Sales	11.5	11.3

September 2
ADP Employment Report - August	700	330

International Trade - July	-$73.2B	-75.7

Productivity - Q2 (r)	2.4%	2.3
Unit Labor Costs	0.9	1.0

Factory Orders - July	0.6%	1.5
Durable Goods Orders	0.5	0.9
Nondurable Goods Orders	0.7	2.1

September 3
Nonfarm Payrolls - August	800K	943
Private	700	703
Manufacturing	35	27
Unemployment	5.2%	5.4
Average Workweek	34.8HR	34.8
Average Hourly Earnings	0.4%	0.4

ISM Services - August	63.6	64.1

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