Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks of Aug. 24 and 31

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of August 24

August 24

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - July

3.50

4.11

August 25

S&P Case/Shiller Index - June

Twenty City M/M

0.4%

0.4

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.1

0.0

0.1

Twenty City Y/Y

3.7

3.7

3.7

FHFA Home Price Index - June

0.3%

-0.3

Consumer Confidence - August

94.6

92.6

93.0

New Home Sales - July

776K

776

786

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

10

10

August 26

Durable Goods Sales - July

4.0%

7.6

4.2

August 27

Initial Unemployment Claims

1050K

1106

1000

GDP - Q2 (p)

-32.8%

-32.9

-32.6

Pending Home Sales Index - July

116.1

116.1

121.3

August 28

International Trade in Goods - July

-$73.9B

-70.6

Wholesale Inventories - July (a)

-0.6%

-1.4

Personal Income - July

-1.4%

-1.1

-0.2

Personal Spending

1.5

5.6

1.4

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - August (r)

72.8

72.8

72.8

Week of August 31

August 31

Chicago PMI

51.9

51.9

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

0.0

-3.0

September 1

PMI Manufacturing Index - August

53.6

53.6

ISM (Mfg) - August

54.8

54.2

54.0

Construction Spending - July

0.8%

-0.7

0.7

Auto Sales* - August

14.8M

14.5

Car Sales

3.6

3.5

Truck Sales

11.2

11.0

September 3

Initial Unemployment Claims

International Trade - July

-$54.0B

-50.7

-52.7

Productivity - Q2 (r)

7.3%

7.3

Unit Labor Costs

12.2

12.2

PMI Services Index - August

54.8

54.8

ISM Services - August

58.1

58.1

57.6

September 4

Nonfarm Payrolls - August

1550K

1763

1493

Private

1400

1462

1375

Manufacturing

100

26

Unemployment

10.1%

10.2

10.0

Average Workweek

34.5HR

34.5

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

-0.4%

0.2

0.0