Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of April 29 And May 6

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of April 29

April 29

Personal Income - March

0.4%

0.2

0.4

Personal Spending - February

0.5

0.1

Personal Spending - March

0.7

0.7

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

11.0

8.3

April 30

Employment Cost Index - Q2

0.8%

0.7

0.7

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.8

2.9

2.8

S&P Case/Shiller Index - February

Twenty City M/M

0.0%

-0.2

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.2

0.1

0.3

Twenty City Y/Y

2.8

3.6

3.2

Chicago PMI - April

59.7

58.7

59.0

Consumer Confidence

127.1

124.1

126.0

Pending Home Sale Index - March

102.4

101.9

102.5

May 1

ADP Employment Report - April

180K

129

180

ISM (Mfg) - April

55.5

55.3

55.0

ISM Prices

Construction Spending - March

0.2%

1.0

0.2

FMOC Announcement

2.375%

2.375

2.375

May 2

Initial Jobless Claims

210K

230

215

Productivity - Q1 (p)

1.8%

1.9

1.4

Unit Labor Costs

1.5

2.0

2

Factory Orders - March

1.6%

-0.5

1.5

Durable Goods Orders

2.7

-1.6

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.5

0.6

May 3

International Trade in Goods - March

-75.9B

-70.9

-75.4

Wholesale Inventories (a)

0.3%

0.2

Nonfarm Payrolls - April

185K

196

180

Private

175

182

172.5

Manufacturing

12

-6

10

Unemployment

3.8%

3.8

3.8

Average Workweek

34.5HR

34.5

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.1

0.3

ISM Services - April

57.1

56.1

57.2

Week of May 6

May 7

JOLTS

7.000M

7.087

Consumer Credit

$17.0M

15.2

May 9

Producer Price Index - April

0.2%

0.6

PPI less food, energy and trade services

0.2

0.4

International Trade - March

-$54.2B

-49.4

May 10

Consumer Price Index - April

0.4%

0.4

Core CPI

0.2

0.1

Treasury Budget - April

$215.0B

-146.9