Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of April 27 And May 4

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of April 27

April 27

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

-60.0

-70.0

April 28

International Trade - March (a)

-51.0

-59.9

Wholesale Inventories - March (a)

-0.7%

-0.7

S&P Case/Shiller Index - February

Twenty City M/M

0.1%

0.0

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.4

0.3

0.4

Twenty City Y/Y

3.2

3.1

3.3

Consumer Confidence

99.0

120.0

88.0

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey

-30

2

April 29

GDP - Q1 (a)

-3.5%

2.1

-4.0

Pending Home Sale Index - March

100.0

111.5

100.4

FMOC

0.125%

0.1

April 30

Initial Jobless Claims

3.000M

4.427

3.500

Employment Cost Index - Q2

0.7%

0.7

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.7

2.7

Personal Income - March

-1.0%

0.6

-1.5

Personal Spending - February

-7.7

0.2

-5.0

Chicago PMI - April

36.0

47.8

37.9

May 1

PMI Manufacturing Index - April

36.9

36.9

ISM (Mfg) - April

37.0

49.1

36.7

Construction Spending - March

-3.9%

-1.3

-3.5

Auto Sales* - April

5.0M

11.4

Car Sales

1.3

2.8

Truck Sales

3.7

8,5

Week of May 4

May 4

Factory Orders - March

-12.2%

0

Durable Goods Orders

14.4

1.2

Nondurable Goods Orders

-10.0

-1.2

May 5

International Trade - March

-$32.0B

-39.9

PMI Services Index

27.0

27.0

ISM Services - April

38.0

52.5

May 6

ADP Employment Report - April

-22500K

-27

May 7

Productivity - Q1 (p)

-5.7%

1.2

Unit Labor Costs

9.4

0.9

Consumer Credit - March

$15.0B

22.3

May 8

Nonfarm Payrolls - April

-22500K

-701

Private

-22500K

-713

Core Private*

Manufacturing

-2700

-18

Unemployment

17%

4.4

Average Workweek

34.0HR

34.2

Average Hourly Earnings

0.3%

0.4