Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of April 22 and 29

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of April 22

April 22

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - March

0.00

-0.29

Existing Home Sales - March

5.250K

5.510

5.30

April 23

FHFA Housing Price Index - February

0.3%

0.6

0.3

New Home Sales - March

630K

667

645

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey

10

10

12

April 25

Initial Jobless Claims

202K

192

200

Durable Goods Orders - March

0.4%

-1.6

0.8

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

10

10

10

April 26

GDP - Q1 (a)

2.3%

2.2

2.0

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - April (r)

97.7

96.9

97.1

Week of April 29

April 29

Personal Income - March

0.4%

0.2

Personal Spending - February

0.5

0.1

Personal Spending - March

0.6

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

11.0

8.3

April 30

Employment Cost Index - Q2

0.8%

0.7

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.8

2.9

S&P Case/Shiller Index - February

Twenty City M/M

0.0%

-0.2

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.2

0.1

Twenty City Y/Y

2.8

3.6

Chicago PMI - April

59.7

58.7

Consumer Confidence

127.1

124.1

Pending Home Sale Index - March

102.4

101.9

May 1

ADP Employment Report - April

180K

129

ISM (Mfg) - April

55.5

55.3

ISM Prices

Construction Spending - March

0.2%

1.0

FMOC Announcement

2.375%

2.375

May 2

Productivity - Q1 (p)

1.0%

1.9

Unit Labor Costs

2.3

2.0

Factory Orders - March

0.5%

-0.5

May 3

International Trade in Goods - March

-75.9B

-70.9

Wholesale Inventories (a)

0.3%

0.2

Nonfarm Payrolls - April

180K

196

Private

170

182

Manufacturing

10

-6

Unemployment

3.8%

3.8

Average Workweek

34.5HR

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.1

ISM Services - April

57.1

56.1