Economic Data Forecasts For The Weeks Of April 19 And 26

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of April 19

April 22

Initial Unemployment Claims

625K

576

625

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - March

0.50

-1.09

Leading Indicators - March

0.8%

0.2

0.9

Existing Home Sales - March

6.254M

6.220

6.180

April 23

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

60

59.1

60.5

PMI Services Flash Index

60.0

60.4

61.7

New Home Sales - March

862K

775

886

Week of April 26

April 26

Durable Goods Orders - March

2.5%

-0.8

1.9

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

25.0

28.9

April 27

S&P Case/Shiller Index - February

Twenty City M/M

1.1%

0.9

Twenty City M/M - SA

1.1

1.2

Twenty City Y/Y

11.8

11.1

FHFA Housing Price Index - February

0.9%

1.0

Consumer Confidence

110.5

109.7

111.7

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey

17

17

April 28

International Trade - March (a)

-$87.6B

-86.7

Wholesale Inventories - March (a)

0.7%

0.6

FMOC

0.125%

0.125

April 29

GDP - Q1 (a)

5.7%

4.3

5.7

Pending Home Sale Index - March

114.0

110.3

April 30

Employment Cost Index - Q1

0.6%

0.7

0.8

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.5

2.5

Personal Income - March

22.0%

-7.1

20

Personal Spending - February

3.0

-1.0

4.0

PCE Price Index

0.4%

0.2

Core PCE Price Index

0.2

0.1

Chicago PMI - April

63.00

66.3

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - April (r)

86.5

86.5