Economic Data Forecast For The Weeks Of May 18 And 25

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of May 18

May 18

NAHB Index - May

35

30

33

May 19

Housing Starts - April

0.950M

1.216

950

Building Permits

0.900

1.353

1000

May 21

Initial Unemployment Claims

2600K

2981K

2425

Philadelphia Fed Survey

-40.0

-56.6

-45.0

Leading Indicators

-6.0%

-6.7

-5.7

Existing Home Sales - April

4.350M

5.270

4.300

Week of May 25

May 26

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - April

35.4

35.4

S&P Case/Shiller Index - March

Twenty City M/M

0.6%

0.5

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.2

0.4

Twenty City Y/Y

3.4

3.5

FHFA Housing Price Index - March

0.6%

0.7

Consumer Confidence

90.0

86.9

88.3

New Home Sales - April

592K

627

592

Richmond Fed Index

-40.0

-53.0

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

-65.0

-73.7

May 28

Durable Goods Sales - April

-15.0%

-14.7

-14.8

GDP - Q1 (p)

-4.8%

-4.8

-4.800

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

1.3

1.3

Pending Home Sale Index - April

70.0

88.2

May 29

International Trade in Goods - April

-$51.0B

-64.2

Wholesale Inventories (a) - April

-1.0%

-0.8

Personal Income - April

-6.0%

-2.0

-7.8

Personal Spending

-15.0

-7.5

-8.5

Chicago PMI - May

40

35.4

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - May (r)

73.7

73.7