Economic Data For The Weeks Of October 31 And November 7

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of October 31

October 31

Personal Income - September

0.4%

0.2

0.4

Personal Spending

0.6

0.0

0.5

Chicago PMI

54.2

54.2

54.3

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

2.0

-3.7

November 1

PMI Manufacturing Index - October

53.2

53.2

ISM (Mfg) - October

51.5

51.5

51.6

ISM Prices

53.0

Construction Spending - September

0.5%

-0.7

0.6

Auto Sales* - September

17.6M

17.8

17.6

Car Sales

7.1

7.2

Truck Sales

10.4

10.5

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

November 2

ADP Employment Report - October

160K

154

170

FMOC

0.375%

0.375

0.375

November 3

Initial Unemployment Claims

255K

258

260

Productivity - Q3 (p)

2.6%

-0.6

2.2

Unit Labor Costs

1.0

4.3

1.4

ISM Services - October

56.0

57.1

56.1

Factory Orders - September

0.2%

0.2

0.2

November 4

Nonfarm Payrolls - October

170K

156

175

Private

160

167

167

Unemployment

4.9%

5.0

4.9

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.4

34.4

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.2

0.3

International Trade - September

-$41.1

-40.7

-38.6

Week of November 7

November 7

Consumer Credit - September

$17.0B

25.9

November 8

NFIB Small Business Optimisim Index - October

94.1

94.1

November 9

Wholesale Inventories - September

0.1%

-0.2

November 10

Treasury Budget - October

-$73.0B

33.4

November 11

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - November (p)

87.2

87.2