Economic Data For The Weeks Of October 24 And 31

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of October 24

October 24

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

-0.25

-0.55

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

51.2

51.5

51.2

October 25

S&P Case/Shiller Index - August

Twenty City M/M

0.2%

0.0

0.2

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.4

0.6

0.4

Twenty City Y/Y

5.1

5.0

5.1

FHFA House Price Index - August

0.5%

0.5

0.5

Consumer Confidence

102.5

104.1

101.0

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

-4.0

-8.0

October 26

International Trade in Goods

-$60.5B

-58.4

-60.5

New Home Sales - September

595K

609

601

October 27

Initial Unemployment Claims

250K

260

255

Durable Goods Sales - September

0.2%

0.1

0.2

Pending Home Sale Index - September

110.0

108.5

111.1

October 28

GDP - Q3 (a)

2.8%

1.4

2.5

Employment Cost Index - Q3

0.6%

0.6

0.6

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.2

2.3

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - October (r)

88.3

87.9

88.5

Week of October 31

October 31

Personal Income - September

0.4%

0.2

Personal Spending

0.6

0.0

Chicago PMI

54.2

54.2

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

2.0

-3.1

November 1

ISM (Mfg) - October

51.0

51.5

Construction Spending - September

0.5%

-0.7

Auto Sales* - September

17.6M

17.8

Car Sales

7.1

7.2

Truck Sales

10.4

10.5

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

November 2

ADP Employment Report - October

160K

154

November 3

Productivity - Q3 (p)

2.1%

-0.6

Unit Labor Costs

0.7

4.3

ISM Services - October

56.3

57.1

Factory Orders - September

0.3%

0.2

Durable Goods Orders

0.2

0.1

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.4

0.2

November 4

Nonfarm Payrolls - October

170K

156

Private

160

167

Unemployment

4.9%

5.0

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.4

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.2