Economic Data For The Weeks of October 17 And 24

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of October 17

October 17

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

1.0

-2.0

1.0

Industrial Production - August

0.1%

-0.4

0.2

Capacity Utilization

75.5

75.5

75.6

Manufacturing

0.1

-0.4

0.1

October 18

Consumer Price Index - September

0.3%

0.2

0.3

Core CPI

0.2

0.3

0.2

NAHB Index

63

65

63

October 19

Housing Starts - September

1.1750M

1.142

1.180

Building Permits

1.165

1.139

1.165

October 20

Initial Unemployment Claims

250K

246

250

Philadelphia Fed Survey

6.5

12.8

7.0

Existing Home Sales - September

5.375M

5.330

5.35

Leading Indicators

0.2%

-0.2

0.2

Week of October 24

October 24

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

-0.25

-0.55

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

51.2

51.5

October 25

S&P Case/Shiller Index - August

Twenty City M/M

0.2%

0.0

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.4

0.6

Twenty City Y/Y

5.1

5.0

FHFA House Price Index - August

0.5%

0.5

Consumer Confidence

102.9

104.1

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

-4.0

-8.0

October 26

International Trade in Goods

-$60.5B

-58.4

PMI Services Flash Index

51.5

52.3

New Home Sales - September

590K

609

Pending Home Sale Index - September

110.0

108.5

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

October 27

Initial Unemployment Claims

Durable Goods Sales - September

0.2%

0.1

October 28

GDP - Q3 (a)

2.8

1.4

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

1.2

2.3

Employment Cost Index - Q3

0.6%

0.6

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.2

2.3

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - October (r)

92.5

92.0