Economic Data For The Weeks Of November 21 And 28

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of November 21

November 21

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - October

0.0

-0.14

November 22

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

0

-4

Existing Home Sales - October

5.420M

5.470

5.420

November 23

Durable Goods Sales - October

1.0%

-0.3

1.5

Initial Unemployment Claims

255K

235

250

FHFA Housing Price Index  - Sept

0.6%

0.7

0.7

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

53.4

53.4

53.5

New Home Sales - October

593K

593

590

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - November (r)

91.6

91.6

91.6

November 24

Thanksgivng

November 25

International Trade in Goods - October

-$60.0B

56.1

-59.7

PMI Services Flash Index

55

54.8

54.8

Week of November 28

November 28

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

2.0

-1.5

November 29

GDP - Q2 (r)

3.0%

2.9

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

1.5

1.5

S&P Case/Shiller Index - September

Twenty City M/M

0.4%

0.4

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.1

0.2

Twenty City Y/Y

5.2

5.1

Consumer Confidence - November

101.1

98.6

November 30

ADP Employment Report - November

160K

147

Personal Income - October

0.4%

0.5

Personal Spending

0.6

0.5

Chicago PMI

52.6

50.6

Pending Home Sale Index - October

110.6

110.0

December 1

Auto Sales* - November

17.8M

18.0

Car Sales

7.1

7.1

Truck Sales

10.7

10.9

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

ISM (Mfg) - November

51.9

51.9

Construction Spending - October

0.5%

-0.4

December 2

Nonfarm Payrolls - November

170K

161

Private

160

142

Manufacturing

5

-9

Unemployment

4.9%

4.9

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.4

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.4