Economic Data For The Weeks Of November 12 And 19

November 12, 2016

Quarterly Forecasts (percent)

Q316

Q416

Q117

Q217

Q317

Q417

2015

2016

2017

2018

GDP: Annual

2.9

2.3

1.5

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.6

1.6

2.2

2.2

GDP: Q4/Q4

1.9

1.8

2.2

2.2

CPI: Year/Year

1.1

1.6

1.9

1.8

2.0

1.9

0.1

1.2

1.9

2.2

Core CPI: Y/Y

2.2

2.2

2.0

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.8

2.2

1.9

1.9

Unemployment Rate

4.9

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.7

5.3

4.9

4.8

4.7

Fed Funds: End Qtr

0.375

0.625

0.625

0.875

0.875

0.375

0.625

1.125

1.625

Upcoming Economic Releases

`

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of November 14

November 15

Retail Sales - October

0.6%

0.6

0.6

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.5

0.5

0.5

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

-2.0

-6.8

-2.3

Export Prices -  October

0.0%

0.3

0.1

Import Prices

0.4

0.1

0.4

Business Inventories - August

0.2%

0.2

0.2

November 16

Producer Price Index - October

0.3%

0.3

0.3

PPI Core

0.2

0.3

0.2

Industrial Production - October

0.2%

0.1

0.1

Manufacturing

0.2

0.2

0.3

Capacity Utilization

75.5

75.4

75.4

NAHB Index

63

63

63

November 17

Initial Unemployment Claims

260

254

257

Consumer Price Index - October

0.3%

0.3

0.4

Core CPI

0.2

0.1

0.2

Housing Starts - October

1.150M

1.047

1.168

Building Permits

1.190

1.225

1.190

Philadelphia Fed Survey

8.2

9.7

8.0

November 18

Leading Indicators

0.2%

0.2

0.1

Week of November 21

November 21

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - October

0.0

-0.14

November 22

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

0

-4

Existing Home Sales - October

5.420M

5.470

November 23

Durable Goods Sales - October

0.4%

-0.3

0.4

Initial Unemployment Claims

FHFA Housing Price Index  - Sept

0.5%

0.7

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

53.4

53.4

New Home Sales - October

593K

593

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - November (r)

91.6

91.6

November 24

Thanksgivng

November 25

International Trade in Goods - October

-$60.0B

56.1

PMI Services Flash Index

55.5

54.8