Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of September 24 And October 1

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of September 24

September 25

Chicago Fed National Manufacturing Index - August

0.20

0.13

0.20

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

29.0

30.9

31.2

September 25

S&P Case/Shiller Index - July

Twenty City M/M

0.5%

0.5

0.5

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.1

0.1

0.1

Twenty City Y/Y

6.3

6.3

6.3

Third Quarter Twenty City Q/Q - SA

FHFA Home Price Index - July

0.3%

0.2

0.3

Consumer Confidence - September

131.7

133.4

131.7

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

19

24

20

September 26

New Home Sales - August

630K

627

630

September 27

Initial Unemployment Claims

305K

201

210

GDP - Q2

4.2%

4.2

4.3

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

3.0

3.0

3.0

International Trade in Goods - August

-72.0

-72.2

-70.8

Wholesale Inventories - August (p)

0.3%

0.6

0.2

Pending Home Sale Index - Aug

106.2

106.2

106.4

September 28

Personal Income - August

0.4%

0.3

0.4

Personal Spending

0.4

0.4

0.3

Chicago PMI - September

62.0

63.6

62.0

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Sept (r)

100.8

100.8

108.0

Week of October 1

October 1

ISM (Mfg) - Sept

59.8

61.3

Construction Spending - August

0.5%

0.1

October 2

Auto Sales* - September

16.9M

16.72

Car Sales

5.2

5.14

Truck Sales

11.7

11.58

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

October 3

ADP Employment Report - September

195K

163

ISM Services - September

58.0

58.5

October 4

Factory Orders - August

0.8%

-0.8

Durable Goods Orders

1.5

-1.7

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.3

0.2

October 5

Nonfarm Payrolls - September

195K

201

Private

190

204

Manufacturing

10

-3

Unemployment

3.9%

3.9

Average Workweek

34.5HR

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.4

International Trade - August

-$49.7B

-50.1

Consumer Credit - August

$15.0B

16.6