Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of October 9 and October 16

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of October 9

October 10

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - September

105.3

105.3

105.4

October 11

JOLTS - August

6.15M

6.17

6.16

October 12

Initial Unemployment Claims

260K

260K

252

Producer Price Index - September

0.4%

0.2

0.4

PPI Core (less food, energy and trade services)

0.2

0.2

0.2

Treasury Budget - September

-$3.0B

-107.7

0.0

October 13

Consumer Price Index - September

0.5%

0.4

0.6

Core CPI

0.2

0.2

0.2

Retail Sales - September

1.5%

-0.2

1.9

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.7

0.2

0.8

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas

0.3

-0.1

0.4

Business Inventories - August

0.8%

0.2

0.6

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - October (p)

95.8

95.1

95.5

Week of October 16

October 16

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

20.0

24.4

October 17

Export Prices - September

0.5%

0.6

Import Prices

0.8

0.6

Import Prices, ex-Energy

0.2

0.2

Industrial Production - August

0.5%

-0.9

Capacity Utilization

76.5

76.1

Manufacturing

0.3

-0.3

NAHB Index

66

64

October 18

Housing Starts - September

1.190M

1.180

Building Permits

1.280

1.300

October 19

Initial Unemployment Claims

Philadelphia Fed Survey

20.0

23.8

Leading Indicators

0.2%

0.4

October 20

Existing Home Sales - September

5.400M

5.350