Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of October 30 And November 6

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

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Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of October 30

October 30

Personal Income - September

0.4%

0.2

0.4

Personal Spending

0.9

0.1

0.9

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

21.3

21.3

21.3

October 31

Employment Cost Index - Q3

0.6%

0.5

0.7

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.4

2.4

S&P Case/Shiller Index - August

Twenty City M/M

0.6%

0.7

0.6

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.2

0.3

0.5

Twenty City Y/Y

6.0

5.8

6.0

Chicago PMI

62.0

65.2

62.0

Consumer Confidence

120.5

119.8

121.0

November 1

Auto Sales* - September

17.47K

18.57

17.50

Car Sales

6.31

6.81

Truck Sales

11.16

11.76

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

PMI Manufacturing Index - October

54.5

54.5

54.5

ISM (Mfg) - October

59.0

60.8

59.5

ISM Prices

Construction Spending - September

0.3%

0.5

0.1

FMOC

1.125%

1.125

1.125

November 2

Initial Unemployment Claims

235K

233K

235

Productivity - Q3 (p)

2.4%

1.5

2.4

Unit Labor Costs

0.6

0.2

0.6

November 3

Nonfarm Payrolls - October

350K

-33

323

Private

340

-40

320

Manufacturing

20

-1

19

Unemployment

4.4%

4.2

4.3

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.4

34.4

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.5

0.2

International Trade - September

-$43.6

-42.4

-43.2

PMI Services Index

55.9

55.9

55.9

ISM Services - October

59.3

59.8

58.7

ISM Prices

ISM Business Activity

Factory Orders - September

1.2%

1.2

1.2

Durable Goods Orders

2.2

2.0

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.3

0.4

Week of November 6

November 7

Consumer Credit - September

$16.5B

13.1

16.5

November 9

Wholesale Inventories - September

0.3%

0.3

November 10

Treasury Budget - October

-$48B

8.0