Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of October 29 And November 5

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of October 29

October 30

Personal Income - September

0.4%

0.3

0.4

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

28.1

28.1

28.0

October 30

S&P Case/Shiller Index - August

Twenty City M/M

0.4%

0.3

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.0

0.1

0.2

Twenty City Y/Y

6.0

5.9

6.0

Consumer Confidence

136.5

138.4

136.0

October 31

ADP Employment Report - October

195K

230.0

180

Employment Cost Index - Q3

0.8%

0.6

0.7

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.8

2.8

Chicago PMI

60.2

60.4

60.0

November 1

Initial Unemployment Claims

212K

215

212

Productivity - Q3 (p)

2.2%

2.9

2,2

Unit Labor Costs

1.3

-1.0

1.2

PMI Manufacturing Index - October

55.9

55.9

55.9

ISM (Mfg) - October

59.3

59.8

59.1

Construction Spending - September

0.3%

0.3

November 2

Auto Sales* - September

17.2M

17.4

17.2

Car Sales

5.2

5.2

Truck Sales

12.0

12.2

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

Nonfarm Payrolls - October

200K

134

190

Private

195

121

181

Core Private*

Manufacturing

22

18

14

Unemployment

3.7%

3.7

3.7

Average Workweek

34.5HR

34.5

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.3

0.2

*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services

International Trade - September

-$53.6B

-53.2

53.4

Factory Orders - September

0.5%

2.3

0.4

Durable Goods Orders

0.8

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.2

0.2

Week of November 5

November 5

PMI Services Index

54.9

54.7

ISM Services - October

60.6

61.6

November 7

Consumer Credit - September

$17.0B

20.1

17.0

November 8

FMOC

2.125%

2.125

November 9

Producer Price Index - October

0.2%

0.2

0.2

PPI less food, energy and trade services

0.2

0.4

0.2

Wholesale Inventories - September

0.3

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (p)

98.0

98.6