Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of October 2 and October 9

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of October 2

October 2

PMI Manufacturing Index

53.0

53.0

53.0

ISM (Mfg) - Sept

57.5

58.8

58.0

Construction Spending - August

0.1%

-0.6

0.3

October 3

Auto Sales* - September

16.3K

16.1

16.3

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

October 4

ADP Employment Report - September

100K

237

150

PMI Services Index

55.2

55.1

55.1

ISM Services - September

55.6

55.3

55.4

October 5

Initial Unemployment Claims

260K

272

265

International Trade - August

-$42.5B

-43.7

-42.5

October 6

Nonfarm Payrolls - September

108K

156

95

Private

120

165

117

Unemployment

4.4%

4.4

4.4

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.4

34.4

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.1

0.3

*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services

Wholesale Inventories - August

1.0%

1.0

0.7

Consumer Credit - August

$16.0B

18.5

16.0

Week of October 9

October 12

Initial Unemployment Claims

Producer Price Index - September

0.4%

0.2

PPI Core (less food, energy and trade services)

0.2

0.2

Treasury Budget - September

-3.0B

-107.7

October 13

Consumer Price Index - September

0.5%

0.4

Core CPI

0.2

0.2

Retail Sales - September

0.7%

-0.2

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.6

0.2

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas

0.3

-0.1

Business Inventories - August

0.2

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - October (p)

95.6

95.1