Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of October 15 And 22

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

 Prior Observation

 Consensus

Week of October 15

October 15

Retail Sales - September

0.5%

0.1

0.6

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.4

0.3

0.4

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas

0.4

0.2

0.4

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

20.0

19.0

19.3

Business Inventories - August

0.6%

0.6

0.5

October 16

Industrial Production - August

0.3%

0.4

0.2

Capacity Utilization

78.2

78.1

78.2

Manufacturing

0.3

0.2

0.2

NAHB Index

67

67

67

JOLTS - August

6.910

6.939

6.900

October 17

Housing Starts - September

1.230M

1.282

1.228

Building Permits

1.285

1.229

1.280

October 18

Initial Unemployment Claims

216K

214

215

Philadelphia Fed Survey

20.0

22.9

20.3

Leading Indicators

0.4%

0.4

0.5

October 19

Existing Home Sales - September

5.380M

5.340

5.300

Week of October 22

October 22

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

0.18

0.18

October 23

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

24

29

October 24

FHFA House Price Index - August

0.3%

0.2

New Home Sales - September

630K

629

October 25

Durable Goods Sales - September

-2.5%

4.4

International Trade in Goods - September

-74.0

-75.8

Wholesale Inventories - September (a)

0.3%

1.0

Pending Home Sale Index - September

104.2

104.2

October 26

GDP - Q3 (a)

3.2%

4.2

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - October (r)

99.0

99.0