Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of October 1 And 8

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of October 1

October 1

ISM (Mfg) - Sept

59.8

61.3

59.9

Construction Spending - August

0.5%

0.1

0.5

October 2

Auto Sales* - September

16.90M

16.72

16.78

Car Sales

5.2

5.14

Truck Sales

11.7

11.58

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

October 3

ADP Employment Report - September

195K

163

177

ISM Services - September

58.0

58.5

58.0

October 4

Initial Unemployment Claims

210K

214

210

Factory Orders - August

2.4%

-0.8

2.0

Durable Goods Orders

4.5

-1.7

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.3

0.2

October 5

Nonfarm Payrolls - September

195K

201

180

Private

190

204

171

Manufacturing

10

-3

10

Unemployment

3.9%

3.9

3.8

Average Workweek

34.5HR

34.5

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.4

0.3

International Trade - August

-$54.0B

-50.1

-53.6

Consumer Credit - August

$15.5B

16.6

15.0

Week of October 8

October 9

October 10

Producer Price Index - September

0.2%

-0.1

0.2

PPI Core (less food, energy and trade services)

0.2

0.1

Wholesale Inventories - August

0.8

0.8

0.6

October 11

Initial Unemployment Claims

Consumer Price Index - September

0.20%

0.2

0.2

Core CPI

0.2

0.1

0.2

Treasury Budget - September

$93.5B

-214.1

October 12

Export Prices - September

-0.1%

-0.1

0.2

Import Prices

0.1

-0.1

0.1

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - October (p)

99.0

100.1

99.0