Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of November 27 And December 4

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of November 27

November 27

New Home Sales - October

625K

667

620

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

25.0

27.6

24.5

November 28

International Trade in Goods - October

-$66.0B

-64.1

-65.0

FHFA Housing Price Index - Sept

0.5%

0.7

0.6

S&P Case/Shiller Index - September

Twenty City M/M

0.4%

0.4

0.4

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.3

0.5

0.4

Twenty City Y/Y

6.2

5.9

6.2

Consumer Confidence - November

126.3

125.9

124.3

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

15

12

15

November 29

GDP - Q2 (r)

3.2%

3.0

3.3

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

2.2

2.2

2.2

Pending Home Sale Index - October

107.0

106.0

107.1

November 30

Initial Unemployment Claims

240K

239

240

Personal Income - October

0.3%

0.4

0.3

Personal Spending

0.3

1.0

0.3

Chicago PMI

63.8

66.2

64.0

December 1

Auto Sales* - November

17.6M

18.1

17..6

Car Sales

6.4

6.6

Truck Sales

11.2

11.5

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

PMI Manufacturing Index - November

53.8

53.8

ISM (Mfg) - November

58.4

58.7

58.4

Construction Spending - October

0.6%

0.3

0.5

Week of December 4

December 4

Factory Orders - October

-0.4%

1.4

Durable Goods Orders

-1.2

2.0

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.4

0.8

December 5

International Trade - October

-$45.0B

-43.5

PMI Services Index

54.7

54.7

ISM Services - November

59.6

60.1

December 6

ADP Employment Report - November

235K

235.0

Productivity - Q3 (r)

3.2%

3.0

Unit Labor Costs

0.3

0.5

December 7

Consumer Credit - October

$18.0B

20.8

December 8

Nonfarm Payrolls - November

250K

261K

Private

245

252

Manufacturing

20

24

Unemployment

4.0%

4.1

Average Workweek

34.4Hr

34.4

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.0

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Dec (p)

98.8

98.5

Wholesale Inventories - October

0.3%

0.3