Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of November 12 And 19

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of November 12

November 13

NFIB

108.0

107.9

108.0

Treasury Budget - October

-$122.0B

119.9

-111.8

November 14

Consumer Price Index - October

0.3%

0.1

0.3

Core CPI

0.2

0.1

0.2

November 15

Initial Unemployment Claims

214K

214

215

Philadelphia Fed Survey

20.0

22.2

20.0

Retail Sales - October

0.6%

0.1

0.5

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.5

-0.1

0.5

Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas

0.4

0.0

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

21.1

21.1

Export Prices - October

0.0%

0.0

0.1

Import Prices

0.0

0.5

0.0

Business Inventories - August

0.3%

0.5

0.3

November 16

Industrial Production - October

0.2%

0.3

0.2

Capacity Utilization

78.2

78.1

78.2

Manufacturing

0.3

0.2

0.3

Week of November 19

November 19

NAHB Index

68

68

November 20

Housing Starts - October

1.220M

1.201

Building Permits

1.260

1241

November 21

Durable Goods Sales - October

-2.5%

0.7

Existing Home Sales - October

5.250K

5.150

Leading Indicators

0.1%

0.5

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - November (r)

98.3

98.3

November 22

Thanksgiving

November 23

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

56.2

55.7

PMI Services Flash Index

54.5

54.8