Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of May 15 and May 22

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of May 15

May 15

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

9.0

5.2

7.0

NAHB Index - May

68

68

68

May 16

Housing Starts - April

1.260M

1.215

1.256

Building Permits

1.280

1.260

1.271

Industrial Production - April

0.4%

0.5

0.4

Capacity Utilization

76.4

76.1

76.3

Manufacturing

0.3

-0.4

0.3

May 18

Initial Unemployment Claims

243K

236

240

Philadelphia Fed Survey

22

22

19.6

Leading Indicators

0.3%

0.4

0.3

Week of May 22

May 22

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - April

0.10

0.08

May 23

New Home Sales - April

600K

621

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey

19

20

May 24

FHFA Housing Price Index - March

0.5%

0.8

Existing Home Sales - April

5.530M

5.710

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

53.1

52.8

PMI Services Flash - April

53.1

53.1

May 25

International Trade in Goods - March

-$65.0b

-64.8

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

10

7

May 26

Durable Goods Sales - April

-0.5%

0.9

GDP - Q1 (p)

0.8%

0.7

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

2.3

2.3

PCE

PCE Deflator

PCE Core Deflator

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - May (r)

98

97.7