Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of June 25 And July 3

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of June 26

June 26

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - May

0.35

0.49

0.3

Durable Goods Orders - May

-0.5

-0.8

-0.6

Dallas Fed General Business Activity

18.2

17.2

June 27

S&P Case/Shiller Index - April

Twenty City M/M

1.2%

1.0

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.3

0.9

0.6

Twenty City Y/Y

5.8

5.9

5.9

Consumer Confidence

117

117.9

116.7

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

6.0

1.0

8

June 28

International Trade in Goods - May

-$66.5B

-67.1

-66.0

Pending Home Sales Index - May

110.5

109.8

110.5

June 29

Initial Jobless Claims

240

241

241

GDP - Q1 (f)

1.2%

1.2

1.2

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

2.2

2.2

2.2

June 30

Personal Income - May

0.3%

0.4

0.3

Personal Spending

0.2

0.4

0.1

Chicago PMI - June

58.2

59.4

58.2

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - June (r)

94.5

94.5

94.5

Week of July 3

July 3

ISM (Mfg) - June

54.5%

54.9

ISM Prices

60.0%

60.5

Construction Spending - May

0.3%

-1.4

July 5

Auto Sales* - June

16.9

16.7

Car Sales

6.5

6.20

Truck Sales

10.7

10.46

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

Factory Orders - May

0.0%

-0.2

Durable Goods Orders

-0.5

-0.8

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.4

0.4

July 6

ADP Employment Report - July

175

253

International Trade - May

-$46.6B

-47.6

ISM Services - June

56.4

56.9

ISM Prices

49.0

49.2

ISM Business Activity

60.0

60.7

Nonfarm Payrolls - June

180K

138

Private

175

147

Manufacturing

6

-1

Unemployment

4.3

4.3

Average Workweek

34.4

34.4

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2

0.2