Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 23 And July 30

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of July 23

July 23

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - June

0.30

-0.15

0.23

Existing Home Sales - June

5.520M

5.430

5.450

July 24

FHFA Home Price Index - May

0.4%

0.1

0.4

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

54.9

55.4

54.9

PMI Services Flash Index

56.0

56.5

56.4

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

22

20

July 25

New Home Sales - June

670K

689

669

July 26

Initial Unemployment Claims

220K

207

217

Durable Goods Orders - June

1.5%

-0.4

3.2

International Trade in Goods - June

-$69.7B

-64.8

-67.2

Wholesale Inventories - June (a)

0.3%

0.6

0.3

July 27

GDP - Q2 (a)

4.2%

2.0

4.2

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (r)

97.1

97.1

97.2

Week of July 30

July 30

Pending Home Sale Index - June

106.6

105.9

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

29.0

36.5

July 31

Personal Income - June

0.4%

0.4

0.3

Personal Spending

0.5

0.3

0.4

Employment Cost Index - Q2

0.6%

0.8

0.7

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.7

2.7

S&P Case/Shiller Index - May

Twenty City M/M

0.8%

0.8

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.3

0.2

Twenty City Y/Y

6.4

6.5

Chicago PMI - July

59.3

64.1

61.8

Consumer Confidence - July

127.2

126.4

126.5

August 1

Auto Sales* - July

17.3M

17.47

17.3

Car Sales

5.7

5.46

Truck Sales

11.6

12.01

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

ADP Employment Report - July

198K

177

178

ISM (Mfg) - July

59.5

60.2

60.2

Construction Spending - June

0.4%

0.4

FMOC

2.125

1.875

August 2

Factory Orders - June

1.0

0.4

1.0

Durable Goods Orders

1.5

-0.4

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.5

1.1

August 3

Nonfarm Payrolls - July

205K

213

195

Private

198

202

189

Manufacturing

22

36

22

Unemployment

3.9%

4.0

3.9

Average Workweek

34.4HR

34.4

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.2

0.3

*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services

International Trade - June

-$48.0B

-43.7

-43.0

ISM Services - July

58.5

59.1

59.0