Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 2 And July 9

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of July 2

July 2

PMI Manufacturing Index - June

54.6

54.6

54.6

ISM (Mfg) - June

58.1

58.7

58.3

Construction Spending - May

0.5%

1.8

0.6

July 3

Auto Sales* - June

17.1M

16.91

17.0

Car Sales

5.5

5.44

Truck Sales

11.6

11.48

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

Factory Orders - May

-0.2%

-0.8

-0.1

July 5

ADP Employment Report - July

185K

178

188

Initial Unemployment Claims

220K

227

223

PMI Services Index

56.5

56.5

56.5

ISM Services - June

58.0

58.6

58.3

July 6

Nonfarm Payrolls - June

190K

223

190

Private

185

218

183

Manufacturing

18

18

15

Unemployment

3.8%

3.8

3.8

Average Workweek

34.5HR

34.5

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.3

0.3

International Trade - May

-$43.3B

-46.2

-43.5

Week of July 9

July 9

Consumer Credit - May

$12.0B

9.3

July 10

July 11

Producer Producer Index - June

0.1%

0.5

Core PPI (less food, energy and trade services)

0.2

0.1

Wholesale Inventories - May

0.5%

0.5

July 12

Consumer Price Index - June

0.1%

0.2

Core CPI

0.2

0.2

Treasury Budget - June

-$102B

-146.8

July 13

Export Prices - June

0.1%

0.6

Import Prices

-0.2

0.6

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (p)

98.2

98.2