Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 17 And July 24

July 14, 2007

Q117

Q217

Q317

Q417

Q118

Q218

2016

2017

2018

GDP: Annual

1.4

2.6

3.0

2.6

1.2

2.8

1.6

2.3

2.3

GDP: Q4/Q4

1.9

2.4

2.3

CPI: Year/Year

2.6

1.9

1.8

1.5

1.2

1.9

1.3

1.9

1.6

Core CPI: Y/Y

2.1

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.9

2.2

1.8

1.9

Unemployment Rate

4.7

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.9

4.4

4.2

Fed Funds: End Qtr

0.875

1.125

1.375

1.375

1.625

1.875

0.625

1.375

2.125

Housing Starts (Mil)

1.18

1.21

1.30

Light Vehicles (Mil)

17.5

17.1

17.2

Retail Sales: Nominal

3.0

3.9

3.8

Retail Sales: Real

1.7

2.0

2.2

Crude Oil (Brent) $

44

47

49

Crude Oil (Cushing)

43

45

47

Q317

Q417

Q118

Q218

Q318

Q418

2016

2017

2018

2019

Fed Funds: End Qtr

1.125

1.375

1.375

1.625

1.875

2.125

0.625

1.375

2.125

2.875

10-YR Treasury

2.45

2.55

2.775

2.94

30-YR Freddie Mac

4.20

4.28

4.48

4.63

`

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of July 17

July 17

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

16.0

19.8

15.0

July 18

Export Prices - June

0.0%

-0.7

0.0

Import Prices

-0.4

-0.3

-0.3

NAHB Index - July

68

67

68

July 19

Housing Starts - June

1.180M

1.092

1.17

Building Permits

1.210

1.168

1.206

July 20

Initial Unemployment Claims

243K

247

245

Philadelphia Fed Survey

24.0

27.6

23.5

Leading Indicators

0.3%

0.3

0.4

Week of July 24

July 24

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

52.0

52.0

PMI Services Flash Index

54.2

54.2

Existing Home Sales - June

5.510M

5.620

July 25

FHFA Home Price Index - May

0.4%

0.5

S&P Case/Shiller Index - May

Twenty City M/M

1.0%

0.9

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.3

0.3

Twenty City Y/Y

6.0

5.7

Consumer Confidence - July

118.3

118.9

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

7.0

7.0

July 26

New Home Sales - June

603K

610

FMOC

1.125%

1.125

July 27

Initial Unemployment Claims

Durable Goods Orders - June

2.0%

-0.8

International Trade in Goods - May

-$65.0B

-65.9

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - June

-0.50

-0.26

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

11.0

July 28

GDP - Q2 (a)

2.6%

1.4

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

1.2

1.9

Employment Cost Index - Q2

0.5%

0.8

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.3

2.4

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (r)

93.1

93.1