Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of July 16 And July 23

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of July 16

16-Jul

Retail Sales - June

0.6%

0.8

0.6

Retail Sales, ex Autos

0.5

0.9

0.4

NY Fed Manufacturing Index

22.5

25.0

21.0

Business Inventories - May

0.4%

0.3

17-Jul

Industrial Production - June

0.5%

-0.1

0.6

Capacity Utilization

78.3

77.9

78.3

Manufacturing

0.6

-0.7

0.7

NAHB Index - July

70

68

69

18-Jul

Housing Starts - June

1.320M

1.35

1.32

Building Permits

1.340

1.301

1.333

19-Jul

Initial Unemployment Claims

223

214

220

Philadelphia Fed Survey

22.0

21.5

22,0

Leading Indicators

0.4%

0.3

Week of July 23

23-Jul

Chicago Fed National Activity Index - June

0.35

-0.15

Existing Home Sales - June

5.520M

5.43

24-Jul

FHFA Home Price Index - May

0.4%

0.1

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index

54.9

55.4

PMI Services Flash Index

56.0

56.5

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

22

20

25-Jul

New Home Sales - June

670K

689

26-Jul

Durable Goods Orders - June

1.0%

-0.4

International Trade in Goods - June

-$69.2B

-64.8

27-Jul

GDP - Q2 (a)

4.00%

2