Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of Jan. 22 And Jan. 29

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of January 22

January 22

Chicago Fed National Activity Index

0.25

0.15

0.25

January 23

Richmond Fed Index

18

20

18

January 24

FHFA Housing Market Index - November

0.4%

0.5

PMI Manufacturing Flash Index - January

54.5

55.0

55.0

PMI Services Flash Index - January

54.2

53.7

54.0

Existing Home Sales - December

5.600M

5.810

5.750

January 25

Initial Unemployment Claims

250K

220

240

International Trade in Goods- December

-$69.0B

-70.0

-68.9

Wholesale Inventories (a)

0.3%

0.8

New Home Sales - December

650K

733

683

Leading Indicators

0.3%

0.5

0.5

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index

14

14

14

January 26

GDP - Q4 (a)

3.0%

3.2

2.9

GDP Implicit Price Deflator

Durable Goods Orders - December

0.9%

1.3

0.8

Week of January 29

January 29

Personal Income - December

0.2%

0.3

0.3

Personal Spending

0.5

0.6

0.5

PCE Price Index

0.2

Core PCE Price Index

0.1

Real Personal Spending

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index

25.5

29.7

January 30

S&P Case/Shiller Index - November

Twenty City M/M

0.0%

0.2

Twenty City M/M - SA

0.7

0.7

Twenty City Y/Y

6.4%

6.4

Consumer Confidence

122.1

122.1

122.4

January 31

ADP Employment Survey - January

195

250

173

Employment Cost Index - Q4

0.5%

0.7

Employment Cost Index - Y/Y

2.5

2.5

Chicago PMI - January

63.9

67.6

Pending Home Sales - December

109.5

109.5

FMOC

1.375%

1.375

February 1

Auto Sales* - January

17.6M

17.85

17.5

Car Sales

6.2

6.09

Truck Sales

11.6

11.76

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

Productivity - Q4 (p)

1.2%

3.0

1.9

Unit Labor Costs

-0.1

-0.2

PMI Manufacturing Index - January

ISM (Mfg) - January

59.2

59.7

58.9

ISM Prices

Construction Spending - January

0.4%

0.8

0.4

February 2

Nonfarm Payrolls - January

200K

148

163

Private

195

146

163

Manufacturing

22

25

17

Unemployment

4.1%

4.1

4.1

Average Workweek

34.5HR

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.3

0.3

*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services

Michigan Consumer Sentiment - February (f)

94.4

94.4

Factory Orders - December

0.7%

1.3

0.7

Durable Goods Orders

0.9

1.3

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.5

1.4