Economic Data And Forecasts For The Weeks Of Jan. 1 And Jan. 8

Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.

Forecast

Prior Observation

Consensus

Week of January 1

January 2

PMI Manufacturing Index - December

55.0

55.0

55.0

January 3

ISM (Mfg) - December

58.0

58.2

58.0

ISM Prices

Construction Spending - December

0.7%

1.4

0.7

Auto Sales* - December

17.5M

17.53

17.5

*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence

January 4

Initial Unemployment Claims

238K

245

240

ADP Employment - December

200K

190

185

PMI Services Index - December

52.4

52.4

52.4

January 5

ISM Services - December

57.6

57.4

57.6

Nonfarm Payrolls - December

210K

228

190

Private

205

221

183

Core Private*

Manufacturing

29

31

17

Unemployment

4.1%

4.1

4.1

Average Workweek

34.5Hr

34.5

34.5

Average Hourly Earnings

0.2%

0.2

0.3

*Core Private equals Private less Medical, Social Assistance, and Temp Services

International Trade - November

-$49.9B

-47.4

-48.3

Factory Orders - November

0.9%

0.1

1.1

Durable Goods Orders

1.3

1.3

Nondurable Goods Orders

0.4

0.7

Week of January 8

January 8

Consumer Credit - November

$19.5B

20.5

January 10

Export Prices - December

0.1%

0.5

Import Prices- December

0.1

0.7

Wholesale Inventories - November

0.7%

0.7

January 11

Initial Unemployment Claims

Producer Price Index - December

0.1%

0.4

Core PPI (PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services)

0.2

0.4

Treasury Budget - December

-$54.0B

-138.5

January 12

Consumer Price Index - December

0.1%

0.4

Core CPI

0.2

0.1

Retail Sales - December

0.4%

0.8

Retail Sales, ex autos

0.5

1.0

Retail Sales, ex autos and gasoline

0.6

0.8

Business Inventories - November

0.3%

-0.1