Here are my forecasts for the weeks of February 5 and 12.
|
Forecast |
Prior Observation |
Consensus |
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|
Week of February 5 |
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|
February 5 |
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|
PMI Services Index - January |
53.3 |
53.3 |
53.3 |
|
|
ISM Services - January |
57.0 |
55.9 |
56.2 |
|
|
February 6 |
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|
International Trade - December |
-$51.8B |
-50.5 |
-51.9 |
|
|
JOLTS - December |
5.900 |
5.879 |
5.900 |
|
|
February 7 |
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|
Consumer Credit - December |
$20.0B |
28.0 |
20.0 |
|
|
February 8 |
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|
Initial Unemployment Claims |
235K |
230 |
235 |
|
|
February 9 |
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|
Wholesale Inventories - December |
0.2% |
0.2 |
0.2 |
|
|
Week of February 12 |
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|
February 12 |
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|
Treasury Budget - January |
$57.0B |
-23.2 |
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|
February 14 |
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|
Consumer Price Index - January |
0.3% |
0.1 |
||
|
Core CPI |
0.1 |
0.3 |
||
|
Retail Sales - January |
0.4% |
0.4 |
||
|
Retail Sales, ex Autos |
0.5 |
0,4 |
||
|
Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas |
0.4 |
0.4 |
||
|
Business Inventories - December |
0.3% |
0.4 |
||
|
February 15 |
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|
Philadelphia Fed Survey |
24.7 |
22.2 |
||
|
Producer Price Index - January |
0.3% |
-0.1 |
||
|
Core PPI (PPI ex Food, Energy, Trade Services) |
0.1 |
-0.1 |
||
|
NY Fed Manufacturing Index |
17.7 |
17.7 |
||
|
Industrial Production - January |
0.2% |
0.9 |
||
|
Manufacturing Output |
0.3 |
0.1 |
||
|
Capacity Utilization |
78.1 |
77.9 |
||
|
NAHB Index - February |
73 |
72 |
||
|
February 16 |
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|
Housing Starts - January |
1.210M |
1.192 |
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|
Building Permits |
1.300 |
1.302 |
||
|
Export Prices - February |
0.3% |
0.1 |
||
|
Import Prices |
0.6 |
-0.1 |
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